Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

422
FXUS64 KCRP 062303
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
503 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 457 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Medium to high rain chances (50-90%) this weekend. A Marginal
  Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place for most
  of South Texas Saturday, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
  the northern Brush Country into the Victoria Crossroads.

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place for
  Saturday over the northern portion of the area, with a Marginal
  Risk (level 1 of 2) for the remainder of South Texas. The main
  hazards will be damaging winds/microburst with large hail to
  very large hail possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Only slight changes were made to the forecast. The mid to upper
level disturbance is expected to swing through the Southern Plains.
Moisture will continue to pool into the region ahead of the peaking
just shy of our climatological max for this time of year. All of
these factors will combine with passing shortwave troughs allowing
for the development of much need showers and thunderstorms across
the region. This disturbance will kick off a front that is expected
to stall just to the north of the region in the Hill Country on
Saturday before pushing through Sunday.

Diving deeper into the dynamics, guidance is depicting very steep
lapse rates as well as an inverted V sounding. This will likely lead
to the development of large hail and a damaging wind
threat/microburst potential. A Slight Risk for severe weather
remains for Saturday for the northern portions of South Texas with a
Marginal Risk in the remaining areas. SPC has mentioned in their
latest update that an upgrade may be necessary as the environment is
looking increasing primed for a "intense supercell or two" which
would promote very large hail specifically in the Brush Country.
Model guidance does support this as it depicts lapse rates around
8.0-8.9 degrees per KM in that region. It will be worth monitoring
over the next few runs ahead of the event, therefore it is
imperative to check back for future updates.

In terms of hydro, the front stalling to the north will allow
consistent rain chances beginning Saturday through Sunday.
Therefore a risk for flash flooding will exist especially in the
northern portions of the region. Due to this factor, the expected
QPF for the region was tweaked this forecast cycle slightly
(isolated areas could see up to 3 inches). WPC has maintained having
the northern portions of the Brush Country into the Victoria
Crossroads included in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall with
the surrounding areas in a Marginal risk.

Rain chances will linger into next week ahead of another disturbance
which will move through around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

We are still breezy this afternoon and evening, with southeasterly gusts
around 30 knots continuing through sunset across the Coastal
Plains. VFR/MVFR ceilings this afternoon will become predominately
MVFR overnight, with brief period of IFR possible over the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Conditions will improve late
Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across much of South Texas Saturday, with some strong to severe
thunderstorms Saturday (the very end or just beyond this TAF
period).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon
across the southern bays and nearshore waters with a moderate to
fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly breeze today. Winds will diminish back
to moderate (BF 4) late this weekend before becoming gentle to
moderate (BF 3-4) by early next week. There is a low (<20%) chance
of showers across the waters through this evening, increasing to a
medium (30-75%) chance over the weekend in response to a passing mid-
 to upper-level disturbance. Rain and storm chances (25-50%) will
continue through the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible again this afternoon
over the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. A Fire Danger
Statement is in remains in effect through 6 PM today.
Chances for precipitation will generally remain low (approximately
20-25%) through the remainder of today, but will increase to a
medium to high (50-90%) chance this weekend with a passing mid- to
upper-level disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  84  66  79 /  10  20  70  70
Victoria          69  84  61  78 /  10  40  90  70
Laredo            72  94  64  74 /  10  20  90  90
Alice             69  89  65  81 /  10  20  80  80
Rockport          70  81  66  79 /  10  20  70  70
Cotulla           71  89  62  74 /  10  60  90  80
Kingsville        70  89  66  81 /  10  20  70  80
Navy Corpus       71  78  68  76 /  10  20  70  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ231-232-
     250.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...LS/77