Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

355
FXUS64 KCRP 141127
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
527 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Cold front passage today will bring the potential for showers
  and storms, primarily for our northernmost counties.

- Storm Prediction Center has the northern Brush Country, northern
  Coastal Plains, and the Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal (1 of
  5) Risk of severe thunderstorms today.

- Drier air post front coupled with breezy winds and dry fuels
  could lead to increased fire weather concerns this weekend and
  early next week.

- Front will provide little relief, with above average
  temperatures expected to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain chances will gradually increase early this morning as a mid-to-
upper-level ridges shifts easts of the area and a weak shortwave
trough tracks across South Texas ahead of a larger longwave trough.
A strengthening LLJ of 30-35 knots will transport moisture
northward, supporting scattered light showers mainly across the
Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads and the northern Brush Country.
Rain coverage before sunrise is expected to remain limited, with
probabilities between 10-20%.

By this afternoon, the previously mentioned longwave trough and
strong LLJ propagate eastward, while a surface low and associated
cold front drive southward into South Texas. PWATs will rise to
range between 1.4-1.7 inches across the eastern half of the
region, with forecast MLCAPE approaching around 1000 J/kg. Large-
scale ascent will strengthen as upper-level divergence increases,
and low-level moisture convergence will intensify along and ahead
of the advancing boundary. These ingredients will favor the
development of showers and thunderstorms from northwest to
southeast through the afternoon and early evening. However, mid-
level capping is expected to limit storm coverage, particularly
farther south. The weakest capping is forecast across northern
portions of the forecast area, particularly for the Victoria
Crossroads, where storm coverage should be highest. As a result, a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms still exists from roughly
Cotulla to Rockport and northward, with the greater concentration
of stronger storms expected across areas north and east of our
WFO. Storms are most likely to organize into a QLCS during the
evening hours, with the better organized damaging wind potential
still focused to our northeast across Southeast Texas. This would
place us on the southwestern fringe of the more organized severe
environment. However, if a few more intense storms manage to
swipe into the northeastern portions of our CWA, the primary
hazards would be isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some small
hail.

The boundary will move offshore by Saturday evening, but CAA behind
the front will be weak. The more noticeable change will be the
transition to a drier airmass and clearing skies overnight, which
will allow low temperatures to fall into the 50s by early Sunday
morning. Upper-level ridging will once again build across Texas
early next week continuing our warm and dry trend. Highs will climb
well above seasonal normals, with the warmest conditions expected
across the Brush Country where highs are forecast to reach the
lower 90s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected today with periods of IFR/LIFR
as rain chances increase ahead of the the cold front. Winds will
remain gusty through this afternoon before decreasing in the wake
of the front. Conditions will quickly improve to VFR after the
frontal passage. Low level wind shear will be possible a couple
sites late towards this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze will persist through Sunday
ahead of and behind our next cold front. Brief instances of gusts to
strong (BF 6) levels can be expected Saturday afternoon and evening
during the height of the frontal passage. The increase of wind
coupled with wave heights between 5-7 feet have lead to the issuance
of a Small Craft Advisory which is in effect from 15Z Saturday
through 03Z Sunday. Precipitation is also anticipated with this
front, with low to medium (30-60%) chances over area waters through
the day Saturday. Winds will be more northerly post-front before
returning to an onshore direction with gentle to moderate (BF 3-4)
conditions by the start of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through
Saturday. Friday night and Saturday will bring our next chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area along
and ahead of our next cold front. Behind this front, elevated to
critical fire weather conditions could return, as relative humidity
values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush
Country and western Coastal Plains for several days. This combined
with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with occasional higher gusts, and
Energy Release Component values in the 70th-89th percentile may
prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag
Warning (RFW) Sunday through possibly Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  57  82  53 /  30  30   0   0
Victoria          77  54  78  47 /  70  40   0   0
Laredo            89  58  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             87  55  84  50 /  30  10   0   0
Rockport          77  59  79  56 /  50  40   0   0
Cotulla           84  55  83  50 /  30   0   0   0
Kingsville        87  55  83  51 /  20  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  61  78  59 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for GMZ231-232-236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...JCP/84