Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS64 KCRP 100535
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Weak mid-level Gulf disturbance will bring a 20-40% chance of
  showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, mainly over the
  waters and Victoria Crossroads.

- Daily low rain chances (10-30%) following Monday for morning
  showers over the waters and the afternoon seabreeze into the
  inland Coastal Plains.

- Hot conditions continue with minor to moderate heat risk through the
  middle of the week worsening to moderate to major late in the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Early this morning, South Texas will be influenced under the eastern
periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge positioned over the Desert
Southwest, keeping most locations dry. Later this morning into the
afternoon, a weak inverted trough or mid-level low drifting in from
the Gulf will draw in slightly deeper moisture (~2.00" PWAT) and
provide subtle lift. This will allow for a better chance (20-40%) of
showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly over the waters then
spreading inland with the seabreeze during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Greatest confidence over the Victoria Crossroads
region. Moisture and weak disturbances will linger into midweek,
while the region sites between two high pressure systems: one to the
west and another over Florida edging to the eastern Gulf. This setup
will keep low rain chances (10-30%) in place most afternoons,
primarily driven by daytime heating and the seabreeze.

Heat indices will generally range from 100-109 through midweek. By
late week, some areas across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush
Country will flirt up to 110-112, causing increasing concern for
Advisory level conditions. Heat impacts will largely remain minor to
moderate through Thursday, before increasing to moderate to major
late in the week. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue
across the southern Rio Grande Plains with afternoon relative
humidity briefly dropping below 30% and above-normal Energy Release
Component (ERC) values, though winds should stay below critical
thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. There is a
low chance for patchy fog over the inland Coastal Plains. Therefore,
included a TEMPO for over ALI from 10-13Z as it has been a
continuous occurrence the past several mornings. The bigger story is
the chance for precipitation. A weak inverted trough drifting in
from the Gulf will draw in slightly deeper moisture and provide
subtle lift, allowing for a 20-40% chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the inland Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads. This warranted the inclusion of PROB30 groups for -TSRA
beginning at 12Z for CRP and VCT and the later addition of ALI
around 19Z. Locally higher winds can be expected in the vicinity of
thunderstorms as well as lowered VSBYs. Chances for precipitation
will diminish by early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southeasterly flow is expected
during the overnight hours, increasing to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-
4) breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day through
Wednesday. Generally gentle to moderate flow will then persist
beginning Wednesday night. Low rain chances (20-40%) will persist
through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  76  95  76 /  20  10  20   0
Victoria          95  74  96  74 /  40  10  40  10
Laredo           103  77 103  78 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             97  74  98  74 /  20  10  30  10
Rockport          92  79  92  80 /  20  10  20  10
Cotulla          101  76 101  77 /  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        95  74  96  74 /  20  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       90  80  90  80 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...KRS/98